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Pablo Gulayin, MS, MD | Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases

Pablo Gulayin, MS, MD

UJMT/LMIC Postdoc

Pablo Gulayin, MS, MD

UJMT/LMIC Postdoc

About

Training Years: 2016-2017

Training Site: Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy IECS)

Country: Argentina

Mentor: Adolfo Rubinstein, MD, MSc, PhD; Jiang He MD, PhD                                                      

Title: Do available cardiovascular risk prediction models from developed countries perform well in the Southern Cone of Latin America?

Project Objectives:

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that most of the current scores overestimate the global cardiovascular risk in the southern cone population.

Aim 1: To assess the goodness-of-fit and discrimination of different risk score equations (Framingham Heart Study, PROCAM, QRISK, SCORE and INTERHEART) on a population-based prospective cohort of the Southern Cone of Latin America.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that CRP is highly associated with cardiovascular risk events in the Southern Cone of Latin America.

Aim 2: To assess the relationship between serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and incidence of cardiovascular events in a subset of subjects with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk from a population based prospective cohort of the Southern Cone of Latin America.

Hypothesis: We hypothesize that the inclusion of CRP into multivariable risk prediction models will improve both prediction and calibration of CVD events in a very high cardiovascular risk population.

Aim 3: To assess the improvement in the prediction models performance (net reclassification improvement and integrative discrimination index) by including CRP into the equations among people with high cardiovascular risk.

NIH Support:  Fogarty fellowship postdoctoral training award